Using data from the 1986 through 1997 period, we update the time series evidence on the response of capital gains realizations to tax rates. In general, we find higher long-run elasticities than reported in many previous studies, but the estimates decrease substantially when the influence of 1986 is effectively removed. We explore several explanations for a diminished behavioral response in the period following fundamental tax reform, finding some suggestive evidence that the response may be dulled in part by a succession of rate changes in a relatively short period and the increasing role of mutual funds in households’ portfolios.
Capital Gains Realizations and Tax Rates: New Evidence from Time Series with Matthew Eichner, National Tax Journal vol 53, number 3 (September 2000), pp. 663-681